Earthquakes and Transition to Self-government in Italian Cities

Abstract: Using a longitudinal dataset of 70 italian medieval cities (observed for 300 years) we show two basic facts: 1) a city's short run probability of shifting from a feudal political regime to communal institutions (free cities) sharply decreases when the city is hit by an earthquake; 2) The probability of adopting communal institutions is negatively correlated with the distance from the closest university after the university foundation. We present a conceptual framework that is consistent with both facts. The framework captures the fundamental tradoff between disorder and dictatorship faced by any society. In such a framework we show that our results are consistent with a modernization theory interpretation of institutional change.