Seduction and Violence in Autocratic Regimes
Abstract: In establishing and consolidating strong centralized states absolute monarchs do not rely on sheer force alone but they also resort to the tactic of seduction whereby they buy the loyalty of potential rivals or dissenters. Our model attempts to elucidate the conditions under which an autocrat is more or less likely to grant substantial material privileges to the counter-elite so as to coopt them. In our setup, two equilibrium strategies are available to the ruler, opposition suppression and opposition confrontation. We show that more abundant resources help the autocrat consolidate his regime but that, when the counter-elite is more prone to venality, this does not necessarily help maintain the autocrat in power. We also propose novel insights derived from the application of our theory to present contexts, such as the Arab Spring.
