What Led to the Ban on Same-sex Marriage in California?: Structural Estimation of Voting Data on Proposition 8

Abstract: The voting literature has largely analyzed voter turnout and voter behavior separately, with a focus on individual election outcomes. This is in spite of the fact that multiple elections are on one ballot, and turnout is determined by participation in all elections. I present a model of voter turnout and behavior in multiple elections. The assumptions are consistent with individual election preferences and decision is derived from utility maximization. I also provide necessary moment conditions for identification. The framework is applied to analyze turnout and voting choices in the 2008 California elections for the US presidential election and Proposition 8 ballot initiative. The exit polls and initial election results made national headlines by linking the historic turnout of African-Americans for Presidential candidate Obama in helping pass Proposition 8. I structurally estimate the demographic preferences for each of the election choices. I find that the African-American turnout and voting share for Proposition 8 was lower than predicted by the exit polls. As a counterfactual, I use the estimated model to look at the turnout and outcome of Proposition 8, without the presidential race on the ballot. As predicted by the model and estimates, I find lower voter turnout that are on par with midterm elections. I also find a lower share of Yes votes on Proposition 8 – enough that the referendum would not have passed.