Resolving Civil Wars Before They Start: the Un Security Council and Conflict Prevention
Abstract: A large body of literature has demonstrated that international action can promote the successful resolution of civil wars. However, international actors do not wait until violence starts to seek to manage conflicts. We argue that different actions of the United Nations Security Council—including condemnations, sanctions, various forms of diplomatic engagement, and the authorization of force—can make civil wars less likely. We test this argument by examining how the content of UN Security Council resolutions in all disputes over self-determination from 1960 to 2005 affect whether these disputes escalate to civil war and find that UN action can have a substantial preventive effect. Specifically, we find that diplomatic actions that directly address a self-determination movement of concern can reduce the likelihood of a subsequent armed conflict. We also find that coercive actions of military force and sanctions have more indirect preventive effects.
