The Successor’s Dilemma in Authoritarian Regimes: Theory and Evidence

Abstract: This paper develops a general theory of the successor's dilemma which is common in autocratic successions: A rational dictator chooses a successor who needs to accumulate sufficient power base to carry on his legacy, but also tends to treat a powerful successor as a threat and then removes him by using social mobilization or elite contest. A weak successor won't be able to sustain the autocratic regime; and, if a dictator does not designate a successor, his regime may run into chaos after his death. Setting dictators and their designated successors as rational agents who care about power and legacy of greatness, this paper formulates various types of succession process with a structural model. Our theory has a substantial explanatory power over the autocratic successions across the history.