Accounting for the Size of Nations: Empirical Determinants of Secessions and the Soviet Breakup
Abstract: Little is known about the empirical determinants of state formation and dissolution, despite a rich theoretical literature on the subject. This paper attempts to fill that gap by treating the dissolution of the Soviet Union as a natural experiment in state breakup. I exploit regional variation in pro-secessionist protests across the 184 provinces of the Union to measure varying incentives to secede. This allows for a test of economic theories of secession. These theories predict that the incentive to secede should be determined by the cost of public goods provision, as well as preference heterogeneity, income inequality, democratization, and trade potential. I find strong evidence for the existence of a trade-off between size and heterogeneity in shaping incentives for secession, but other factors only receive qualified support.
