Throw Away the Jail or Throw Away the Key? the Effect of Punishment on Recividism and Social Cost
Abstract: In the wake of the recent financial crisis, incarceration alternatives are attractive because they are less costly, and may reduce recidivism and the social costs of crime. Despite widespread use, their effectiveness has largely escaped rigorous empirical evaluation. Incarceration alternatives are less immune to prison hardening and negative peer learning, and they also allow scholars to reconsider current definitions of incapacitation. While many define and measure incapacitation solely through incarceration, we argue for a continuous conceptualization, inclusive of non-carceral sanctions, which shapes important decisions in measuring incapacitation effects. One ideal setting to explore alternative sanctions is drunk driving, because of the variety of sanctions used to curb the behavior. Using quasi-experimental evidence, the article examines the effectiveness of sanctions in curbing recidivism and crashes with some 200,000 alcohol tests. Four key results emerge from the study. First, non-carceral sanctions offer promise in their effectiveness. Second, the channel through which the sanctions work is incapacitation, rather than specific deterrence. Third, the sanctions have varied success based on their form and whom they target. A law mandating victim panels, increasing license suspension length, and stimulating use of ignition interlock devices reduced crashes during and after a license suspension. The same law decreased recidivism during the suspension period, but the effects go away soon after. A suspension enhancement targeting those with higher intoxication neither reduced recidivism, nor crashes. Fourth, the probability of recidivism and crashes for first-time offenders given jail, fines, and a license suspension was not statistically distinguishable from those who received no sanctions. The paper offers mechanisms that explain the results, examines theoretical and legal reform implications, and discusses generalizing from the results to other legal domains.
