Explaining Leadership Selection in the Brazilian Congress: a Multinomial Logistic Model

Abstract: What factors explain the occupation of leadership positions in the Brazilian Congress? Understanding the selection process as a problem of agency, we test the hypothesis that there is a homogeneous profile of leadership based on both prestige and credibility. Technically, congressmen will try to minimize adverse selection problems during the selection of their representatives. On methodological grounds, we used a multinomial logistic model with six independent variables divided in two dimensions: (1) Prestige: seniority, political experience and incumbency. (2) Credibility: party seniority, partisan expertise and party shifting. The units of analysis are the selection of party leaders, committees’ chair and majority speakers during the 51st and 52nd national legislatures. Our preliminary findings suggest that leaders gather, comparatively to rank filed members, more accurate knowledge of the congressional machine and higher alignment with the party interests. In addition, similarly to the U.S. Congress, seniority strongly explains patterns of leadership. Therefore, despite of conventional wisdom about Brazilian Congress, these results suggest some degree of institutionalization in the national House of Representatives following the Poslby’s (1968) definition.