A Model of Censorship, Propaganda, and Repression

Abstract: We extend the canonical two-state, two-action model of Bayesian persuasion to explore the interaction among censorship, propaganda, and repression in autocracies. Censorship renders propaganda (persuasion) more effective but blocks information useful to the government in deciding whether to repress. When the government has the capacity to implement any censorship level with precision, propaganda is uninformative in equilibrium; repression is a last resort when censorship fails. When the government instead implements censorship with error, propaganda is informative when the cost of repression is high. Our analysis highlights that information manipulation and repression may occur in tandem and that the option to repress affects the nature of censorship and propaganda.