Motivated Memory and the Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility Norms

Abstract: How do people form their beliefs about long-term processes in life that they later pass on to the next generation? This paper aims to study long-term memory of Kenyan women and men when it comes to their past reproductive desires 10 years ago and intergenerational transmission of their beliefs to the next generation. The study relies on survey experiments around respondents' recall behavior in a large, ongoing survey that makes use of past information about respondents' desired number of children from a survey when respondents were in their early 20s. Respondents' memory is inaccurate and biased, at least partly so for motivated reasons. Those who have more children than they initially desired are likely not to remember so and to avoid information about their past desires -- what is more, those who are not aware of their excess fertility would also advice the next generation to have more children than those with accurate memory. This combination of motivated memory and intergenerational transmission has the potential to contribute to cultural persistence and might also be behind the persistence of traditions such as female genital mutilation.