Beyond the Colored Revolutions: a Dynamic Model of Policy Making and Protest
Abstract: The popular response to a series of fraudulent elections in Serbia, Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan has attracted a great deal of attention from scholars. Left relatively unexplored, however, has been the legacy of these ”Colored Revolutions” for the future of political protest for the countries in which they occurred. In particular, an understanding of protests in a dynamic context raises a tension. In settings in which individual opposition is likely to be strong or coordinated enough to result in protests, we might think that subsequent organized protests become more likely. But the possibility of subsequent protests might limit the ability of a government to respond to an initial protest, thereby diminishing the value of protesting in the first place. Furthermore, the need for subsequent protest may call into question the value of the benefits gained from the original protest, thus making participation in future protests less likely. To address these tensions, we formulate a dynamic model of policy making and protest behavior and apply its insights to understanding recent political developments in Colored Revolution countries.
