Civil War in a Globalized World: Diplomacy and Trade

Mathieu Couttenier (Paris 1 Sorbonne)
Raphael Soubeyran (INRA-LAMETA and IDEP Montpellier)

Abstract: We consider the impact of diplomatic intervention in civil wars on international trade. Using a large data set over the period 1948-2005, we obtain two striking results: (i) diplomatic intervention has a positive effect on trade for the country in which the civil war occurs (target country); and (ii) bilateral trade between the target and intervening country does not increase more than trade between the target country and the other countries. We argue that intervention induces an enhancement of trade-promoting capital in the target country and show that diplomatic intervention has a positive effect on institutional quality in the target country.

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