Path Dependence, Social Capital, and Violent Conflict in Ethnically Polarized Developing Countries
Abstract: Using a social capital framework, this paper argues that the dynamics of relationships within and between ethnic groups in ethnically-polarized societies creates a type of path dependence that locks such societies into "survival politics". I argue that ethnically-polarized developing countries are typically characterized by relatively high levels of intra-ethnic social capital but relatively low levels of inter-ethnic social capital. The juxtaposition of high levels of intra-ethnic social capital with low levels of inter-ethnic social capital generates and sustains survival politics. Survival politics makes it difficult to adopt growth-promoting policies and increases the risk that groups may adopt radical, extra-institutional strategies such as violence and insurgency. The literature on path dependence typically focuses on historic and cultural self-reinforcing institutional mechanisms. Relational dynamics have been relatively unexplored as a form of path dependence that constrains institutional reform. This paper aims to contribute to the literature on institutional reform in ethnically-polarized countries by exploring how varying levels of social capital create constraining relational dynamics in the polity.
