Does Democracy Deliver in Islamic Societies?
Abstract: Is Islam compatible with democracy? Huntington (1993) finds the answer is no: the dearth of democracy in the Muslim world is rooted in Islamic civilization itself. Other authors argue that the Muslim lack of democracy is attributable to factors other than Islam. Recent developments in Northern Africa and the Middle East add new urgency to this question. As in most young democracies, the real challenge in Muslim societies, however, is not whether democracy is considered desirable in itself, but whether it delivers the freedom and welfare gains that are expected from it. If it fails to do that, the risk is that democracy loses legitimacy, which may cause new openings in the political system to strengthen anti-democratic political forces. This paper examines whether democracy delivers the same freedom, income, and well-being in- and outside the Muslim world. We estimate inter-societal differences in the gains in happiness, freedom and income caused by democratic institutions. If we find that democracy has a weaker positive effect on these variables in Muslim societies, we interpret this as an indication that democracy delivers less in Muslim societies, making disappointment with the functioning of democracy and a resulting loss of legitimacy more likely. Focusing not on professed desirability of democracy, but on ex-post appreciation of democratic changes, we take the debate about Islam and democracy in a new direction. Based on our results, we conclude that Huntington was partially right: in Muslim societies, cultural and institutional constraints imply that democracy delivers less freedom than elsewhere. On the other hand, were democracy to bring them the same levels of perceived individual freedom and welfare as it does in the rest of the world, people in Muslim societies appreciate democracy just as much. In this sense, no clash of civilizations exists; Muslims do not like democratic freedoms less but equally much as non-Muslims do.
